Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Surveying the Post-Week 11 CFP and New Year's Six Bowl Projections.

The third College Football Playoff Tuesday of the 2015 season is here. The CFP Committee will be releasing its third poll of the season which will without a doubt infuriate somebody with whom they have chosen as the top four teams this week.


Baylor's loss to Oklahoma will mean at least one new entry in the top six. Stanford's loss to Oregon will all but certainty knock out it (and the Pac-12) out of CFP contention. Most likely, either Oklahoma, or Oklahoma State will be the benefactor of their losses.

As with last week, the pundits picked for this review are ESPN's Brett McMurphy and Mark Schlabach, CBS Sports' Jerry Palm, SB*Nation's Jason Kirk, and Bleacher Report's Bryan Fischer.


College Football Playoff




Current CFP Final Four:


Clemson, Alabama, Ohio St., Notre Dame



Final Four projections:


McMurphy:

Last Week:Clemson, Alabama, Ohio St., Oklahoma St.

This Week: Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma State


Schlabach:

Last Week: Clemson, Alabama, Ohio. St, Baylor.

This Week: Clemson, Alabama, Ohio St., Oklahoma St.

Palm:

Last Week: Ohio St,. Alabama, Clemson, Stanford

This Week:Ohio St., Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma


Kirk:

Last Week: Clemson, Alabama, Stanford, Baylor

This Week: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio St., Notre Dame


Fischer:

Last Week: Ohio St. Clemson, Alabama, Stanford

This week: Ohio St., Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma


Kirk has the biggest reshuffling, having both Stanford and Baylor in his final four. This week, he jumps on the Ohio St. and Notre Dame bandwagons. Schlabach, like Kirk, had Baylor in the no. 4 slot last week. He joins ESPN partner in giving Baylor slot to Oklahoma St.. Palm and Fischer both replace Stanford with Oklahoma. 

Stanford's loss leaves the Pac-12 as the Power Five conference on the outside looking in. Expect a lot of calls for an expansion to the CFP from the West Coast from here on out.




Cotton Bowl (no. 2 vs. no. 3)

McMurphy:

Last Week: Alabama vs. Ohio St.
This Week: Alabama vs. Ohio St.


Schlabach:

Last Week: Alabama vs. Ohio St.
This Week: Alabama vs. Ohio St.


Palm:

Last Week: Alabama vs. Clemson
This Week: Clemson vs. Alabama


Kirk:

Last Week: Alabama vs. Stanford
This Week: Alabama vs Notre Dame


Fischer:

Last Week: Clemson vs. Alabama
This Week: Clemson vs. Alabama


Kirk is the only pundit having to adjust his Cotton Bowl projection. McMurphy and Schlabach continue to pick an Alabama and Ohio St. rematch for the Cotton Bowl in tandem.



Orange Bowl (no. 1 vs. no. 4)

McMurphy:

Last Week: Clemson vs. Oklahoma St.
This Week: Clemson vs. Oklahoma St.


Schlabach:

Last Week: Clemson vs. BaylorThis Week: Clemson vs. Oklahoma


Palm:

Last Week: Ohio St. vs Stanford
This Week: Ohio St. vs. Oklahoma


Kirk:

Last Week: Clemson vs. Baylor
This Week: Clemson vs. Ohio St.


Fischer:

Last Week: Ohio St. vs. StanfordThis Week: Ohio St. vs. Oklahoma




Palm, Kirk, and Fischer all see Ohio St. playing in Miami in the Orange Bowl. The big difference being that Kirk sees the Buckeyes finishing up the year at no. 4 as opposed to no. 1. All the pundits' projections have the possibility of being really good games.


New Year's Six Bowls


Sugar Bowl (Big-12 vs. SEC, Jan. 1)


McMurphy:
Last Week: Florida vs. Baylor
This Week: Florida vs. Oklahoma

Schlabach: 
Last Week: LSU vs. Oklahoma
This Week: Florida vs. Baylor

Palm: 
Last Week: LSU vs. TCU
This Week: Oklahoma St. vs. LSU

Kirk: 
Last Week: Oklahoma vs. LSU
This Week: Oklahoma vs. Florida

Fischer: 
Last Week: Baylor vs. LSU
This Week: Florida vs. Baylor

Everybody was surprised with Arkansas victory over LSU, where The Mad Hatter fell to The Mad Fatter. It caused a major shakeup in the Sugar Bowl projections, where four of the five projectors had LSU landing last week. This week, only Palm sees the Bayou Bengals making it to New Orleans. McMurphy had Florida vs. Baylor last week. While he drops the Bears for the Sooners this week, Schlabach and Fischer pick up his former Gators vs. Bears projection.

Rose Bowl (Big 10 vs. Pac-12, Jan. 1)


McMurphy: 
Last Week: Iowa vs. Stanford
This Week: Iowa vs. Stanford

Schlabach:
Last Week: Iowa vs. Stanford
This Week: Iowa vs. Stanford

Palm:
Last Week: Iowa vs. Utah
This Week: Iowa vs. Stanford

Kirk:
Last Week: Michigan vs. USC
This Week: Iowa vs. Stanford

Fischer:
Last Week: Iowa vs. Utah
This Week: Iowa vs. Stanford

Across the board agreement for an Iowa vs. Stanford Rose Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl (At-large vs. At-large)


McMurphy: 
Last Week: Oklahoma vs. Houston
This Week: Baylor vs. Houston

Schlabach:
Last Week: Utah vs. Notre Dame
This Week: Oklahoma St. vs. Notre Dame

Palm:
Last Week: Baylor vs. Houston
This Week: Notre Dame vs. Houston

Kirk:
Last Week: Notre Dame vs. Iowa
This Week: Baylor vs. Michigan State

Fischer:
Last Week:Houston vs. Notre Dame
This Week: Houston vs. Florida State.

Conventional wisdom seems to be that the Group of Five will be represented by Houston, and it will wind up in the Fiesta Bowl. Schlabach and Kirk go against the grain.

Peach Bowl (At-Large vs. At-Large, Dec. 31)


McMurphy: 
Last Week: Michigan St. vs. Oklahoma
This Week: Michigan St. vs. Notre Dame

Schlabach:
Last Week: Florida vs. Houston
This Week: Houston vs. Florida St. 

Palm:
Last Week: Michigan St. vs. Notre Dame
This Week: Michigan St. vs. Florida St. 

Kirk:
Last Week: Ohio St. vs. Houston
This Week: Florida St. vs. Navy

Fischer:
Last Week: Michigan St. vs. Oklahoma
This Week: Notre Dame vs. LSU


Jason Kirk has the huge "WTF" projection of the week with Navy replacing Houston as the Group of Five's representative. He apparently sees the Midshipmen defeating the Cougars on Nov. 27, winning the AAC title, then beating Army. That could cause a delay in the CFP Committee releasing the final standings for the year.








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