Wednesday, June 19, 2013

BCS Bowl projections already?

SB*Nation's Jason Kirk came out with his preseason bowl predictions for 2013 a couple of days ago. Here's what he has going down in the BCS, and more importantly, what I think will happen. At least today.

BCS title game: (Jan. 6, 2014)

Jason Kirk's prediction: Alabama vs. Oregon
What I think: Alabama vs. Ohio State

Going along the conventional wisdom of Alabama in the BCS isn't as easy as it looks. There's an urge to have Texas A&M all the way. But honestly, that would require Johny Manziel and the Aggies to go undefeated, and between a one-loss Alabama and a one-loss aTm, the Tide get the benefit of the doubt. Same goes with one-loss 'Bama and one-loss LSU.

Ohio State is an easier no-brainer to get away with though. I don't see Urban Meyer having too much trouble going at least 11-1 in season.

Rose Bowl (Jan. 1, 2014)
Kirk's prediction: Stanford v. Ohio St.
What I think: Nebraska vs. Stanford

With Ohio State in the BCS title game (and naturally,the Big 10 championship), that leaves the Rose Bowl open for another Big 10 school (and you know the Rose won't pick Boise State to replace a Big Ten school, right?). The B1G Legends division seems rife for teams to take a step back after next season. Nebraska looks like the best choice to make it through to the B1G championship game. The Huskers will benefit from not having Ohio St. the regular season schedule as well. Which Legends contenders Northwestern and Michigan don't.

Stanford makes it in because I think it can edge out Oregon in both their conference game and as the eventual Pac-12 North champ. I don't expect to see much competition coming from their Pac-12 South opponent in the Pac-12 championship game, either.

Orange Bowl (Jan 3, 2014)
Kirk's prediction Clemson vs. Lousiville
What I think: Clemson vs. Boise St.

Hard to argue against Clemson winning the ACC again this season. Which leaves the Orange, who as the BCS's first at-large pick to find the Tigers and opponent. Boise State will probably go unbeaten this year. Sadly, so will either Alabama, Ohio St., or both.  The Broncos will probably wind up higher in the BCS than Louisville, so they get to go to Miami.

Sugar Bowl (Jan 2, 2014)
Kirk's prediction: Georgia vs. Oklahoma State
What I think: Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma St.

If 'Bama goes to the BCS again, The Sugar Bowl has to find a replacement SEC team. Kirk thinks it would be presumed SEC East champ Georgia. I'm doubtful the Dawgs are going to be able to do better than 10-2 in the regular season. South Carolina or could go 11-1 and lose to 'Bama in the SEC title game, knocking them to 11-2. Florida will probably go 10-2, getting beat by SCAR and LSU. Between a 11-2 South Carolina and a 11-1 Texas A&M, the Sugar goes for a chance to have Johnny Football run amok both in the Sugar Bowl and on Bourbon Street after the game.

The Sugar Bowl also gets the BCS 2nd at-large pick. Louisville in the Superdome last year, but the Sugar may skip them for a chance to have Oklahoma St., if only to help keep the Fiesta from being a Big 12 vs. Big 12 matchup.

Fiesta Bowl (Jan 1, 2014)
Kirk's prediction Texas vs. Bosie St. 
What I say. Oklahoma vs. Louisville. 

The Big 12 is hard to predict this season, but the Sooners may find a way to edge ahead. As for Louisville, well, it has to land somewhere.

(via SB*Nation)

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