Sunday, September 30, 2018

College Football Playoff Projections for Week 5 see Alabama, and Ohio St. as most likely in the playoff.


When it comes to the 2018 College Football Playoff, there are two constants: Alabama and Ohio State. While the five bowl prognosticators SWRT chose to monitor all have these two teams playing for the CFP Championship in either the 2018 Orange Bowl, or the 2018 Cotton Bowl Classic, none of them have the Crimson Tide and Buckeyes facing each other on that date.

Bowl Eligibility Watch: Ten teams have at one win away from bowl eligibility.

There are ten  teams with five or more wins following the end of Week Five of the 2018 college football season. (The 5-1 being Hawai'i.) They need only one win to become bowl eligible (six or more wins).

Bowl projections are via Jason Kirk of SB*Nation.

Power Five

ACC

Five Wins (Magic Number: 1 Win)

Clemson (5-0, 2-0 ACC Atlantic)

Four Wins (MN: 2)

NC State (4-0, 1-0 Atlantic)

Miami (4-1, 1-0 ACC Coastal)

Boston College (4-1, 1-0 Atlantic)

Syracuse (4-1, 1-1 Atlantic)

Duke (4-1, 0-1 Coastal)

Clemson is projected by Kirk to be in the College Football Playoff. Miami is projected for the Peach Bowl.

Three Wins (MN: 3)

Virginia  Tech (3-1, 2-0 Coastal)

Virginia (3-2, 1-1 Coastal)

FSU (3-2, 1-2 Atlantic)

Wake Forest (3-2, 0-1 Atlantic)

Jason Kirk projects FSU and Wake as missing out on bowl bids this week.

Two Wins (MN:4)

Pitt (2-3, 0-2 Coastal)

Louisville (2-3, 0-2 Atlantic)

Georgia tech (2-3, 0-2 Coastal)

Of the two-win ACC schools, Kirk only projects Pitt as making it to a bowl game.

Big 12


Four Wins (MN: 1)

Oklahoma (5-0, 2-0 Conference)

Kirk picks Notre Dame over Oklahoma in his CFP projection. The Sooners are condemned to a rematch against Georgia in the Sugar.

Four Wins (MN: 2)

West Virginia (4-0, 2-0 Conference)

Texas (4-1, 2-0)

Oklahoma St. 4-1, 1-1)

Three Wins (MN: 3)

Texas Tech (3-2, 1-1)

Baylor (3-2, 1-1)

TCU (3-2, 1-1)

Two Wins (MN: 4)

Kansas (2-3, 02)

Kansas State (2-3, 0-2)

Big Ten 


Five Wins (MN: 1)

Ohio State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten East)

Ohio State projected as a CFP team.

Four Wins (MN: 2)

Michigan (4-1, 2-0 East)

Indiana (4-1, 1-1 East)

Penn State (4-1, 1-1 East)

Penn State joins the teams with one loss. The good news: The Nittany Lions are projected to represent the B1G in the Rose Bowl. Michigan projected for the Peach Bowl against Miami.

Three Wins (MN: 3)

Wisconsin (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten West)

Maryland (3-1, 1-0 East)

Michigan State (3-1, 1-0 East)

Iowa (3-1, 0-1, West)

Minnesota (0-1 West)

Kirk snubs Maryland, leaving the Terrapins without a bowl bid.

Two Wins (MN: 4)

Illinois (2-2, 0-1 East)

Pac-12 


Four Wins (MN: 2)

Colorado (4-0, 1-0 Pac-12 South)

Stanford (4-1, 2-0 Pac-12 North)

Washington (4-1, 2-0 North)

Oregon (4-1, 1-1 North)

Washington State (4-1, 1-1 North)

Washington projected to represent the Pac-12 in the Rose Bowl against Penn St.)

Three Wins (MN: 3)

Cal (3-1, 0-1 North)

USC (3-2, 2-1 South)

Arizona State (3-2, 1-1 South)

Two Wins (MN: 4)

Utah (2-2, 0-2 South)

Arizona (2-3, 1-1)

Surprisingly, Kirk projects Utah going to the Sun Bowl.

SEC


Five Wins (MN: 1)

Georgia (5-0, 3-0 SEC East)

Kentucky (5-0, 3-0 East)

Alabama 5-0, 2-0 SEC West)

LSU (5-0, 2-0 West)

Alabama projected as heading to the CFP. Georgia doomed to face Oklahoma again in the Sugar Bowl.

Four Wins (MN: 2)

Florida (4-1, 2-1 East)

Auburn (4-1, 1-1 West)

Auburn projected to face Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.

Three Wins (MN: 3)

Texas A&M ( 3-2, 1-1 West)

Missouri (3-1, 0-1 East)

Vanderbilt (3-2,  0-1 East)

Mississippi State (3-2, 0-2 West)

Ole Miss 3-2, but ineligible for postseason play due to NCAA violations.

Two wins (MN: 4)

Tennessee (2-3, 0-2 East)

Group of Five Conferences


American Athletic 


Five Wins (MN: 1)

Cincinnati (5-0, 1-0 American East)

What does Cincinnati get for going 5-0? A projected Military Bowl bid.

Four Wins (MN: 2)

South Florida (4-0, 1-0 East)

Central Florida (4-0, 1-0 East)

Three Wins (MN: 3)

Houston (3-1, 0-0 American West)

Memphis (3-2, 0-2 West)

Two Wins (MN: 4)

Navy (2-2, 1-1 West)

SMU (2-3, 1-0 West)

Tulane (2-3, 1-0 West)

Temple (2-3 1-0 East)

Tulane, Central Florida, South Florida, and Temple projected for bowl invitations.

Conference USA

Four Wins (MN: 2)

North Texas (4-1, 0-1 C-USA West)

Three Wins (MN: 3)

Marshall (3-1, 1-0 C-USA East)

Louisiana Tech (3-1, 1-0 West)

UAB (3-1, 1-0 West)

Two Wins (MN: 4)

Middle Tennessee (2-2, 1-0 East)

Southern Miss (2-2, 1-0 West)

UT Sam Antonio (2-3, 1-0 West)

Charlotte (2-3, 1-1 East)

Florida Atlantic (2-3, 0-1 East)

North Texas, Marshall, Louisiana Tech, and UAB are projected by Kirk to get bowl invites.

MAC

Four Wins (MN: 2)

Buffalo (4-1, 1-0 MAC East)

Three Wins (MN: 3)

Western Michigan (3-2, 1-0 MAC West)

Two Wins (MN: 4)

Akron (2-1, 0-0 East)

Ohio (2-2, 0-1 East)

Toledo (2-2, 0-0 West)

Northern Illinois (2-3, 2-0 West)

Eastern Michigan (2-3, 0-2 West)

Buffalo, Ohio, Toledo, and Akron projected for bowls.

Mountain West

Five Wins (MN: 1)

Hawaii (5-1, 2-0 MWC West)

Three Wins (MN: 3)

Boise State (3-1, 1-0 MWC Mountain)

Boise St. is picked by Kirk to be the top Group of Five school at the end of the season, facing Auburn in the Fiesta Bowl. Hawai'i gets a rock a Hawai'i Bowl big.

Utah State (3-1, 1-0 Mountain)

San Diego State (3-1, 0-0 West)

Fresno St (3-1, 0-0 West)

Nevada (3-2, 1-0 West)

Two Wins (MN: 4)

New Mexico (2-2, 0-2 Mountain)

UNLV (2-2, 0-0 West)

Wyoming (2-3, 0-1 Mountain)

Utah St., and San Diego St. projected for bowl bids.

Sun Belt

Four Wins (MN: 2)

Troy (4-1, 2-0 Sun Belt East)

Three Wins (MN: 3)

Appalachian State (3-1, 1-0 East)

Georgia Southern (3-1, 1-0 East)

Costal Carolina (3-2, 1-1 East)

Two Wins (MN: 4)

Georgia State (2-3, 1-0 East)

Louisiana-Monroe (2-3, (0-2 Sun Belt West)

Troy, Costal Carolina, Appalachian St., and Georgia Southern projected for bowl bids.

Independents

Five Wins (MN: 1)

Notre Dame (5-0)

Kirk places ND into the CFP Playoffs. Be afraid. Be very afraid.

Three Wins (MN: 3)

Army (3-2)

BYU (3-2)

Two Wins (MN: 4)

Liberty (2-2)

U-Mass (2-4)

Army and BYU are projected for bowls.































Monday, September 24, 2018

2018 Bowl Eligibility Watch: Sixteen teams are two games away from bowl eligibility.


Bowl Eligibility Watch 2018

Week 4 of the 2018 college football season is over, and fifteen teams are 4-0, with one (Hawai'i) sitting at 4-1. That means that teams becoming bowl eligible (six or more wins) can happen as early as two weeks from now.

Sunday, September 16, 2018

Bowl Eligibility Watch 2018: Post-week three edition.

Week Three of the 2018 college football season is over, which means it’s time to break out the first Bowl Eligibility Watch of the season. 
For those new to SWRT, the Bowl Eligibility Watch gives an overview of where teams are in terms of getting the six wins needed to become bowl eligible. So far, 29 teams have three wins, which is halfway to bowl eligibility. 

American Athletic Conference 


Three Wins
East

Cincinatti (0-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
South Florida (0-0 conference, 3-0 overall)

West

None
Two wins 
UCF (0-0 conference, 2-0 overall)
Navy (1-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
Houston (1-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
Memphis (0-1 conference, 2-1 overall)

ACC 

Three wins
Atlantic division
Boston College (1-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
Syracuse Orange (1-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
Clemson Tigers (0-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
Costal division
Duke (0-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
Two wins
Atlantic 
NC State (0-0 conference, 2-0 overall)
Louisville (0-0 conference, 2-1, overall)
Wake Forest (0-1 conference, 2-1 overall)
Costal
Virginia Tech (1-0 conference, 2-0 overall)
Pitt (1-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
Miami (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
Virginia (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)

Big 12

Three wins
Oklahoma (1-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
Oklahoma State (0-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
 West Virginia (0-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
Two wins
Baylor (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
Kansas (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
Kansas State (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
TCU (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
Texas (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
Texas Tech (0-1 conference, 2-1 overall)

Big Ten 

Three wins 
East 
Ohio State (1-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
Indiana (0-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
Penn State (0-0, 3-0 overall)
West 
Iowa (0-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
Minnesota (0-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
Two wins
East
Maryland (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
Michigan (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
West 
Illinois (0-0 conference, 2-1 conference)
Wisconsin (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)

Conference USA 

Three wins 
East
None
West
North Texas (0-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
Two wins 
East
Charlotte (1-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
Florida International (1-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
Marshall (0-0 conference, 2-0 overall)
Florida Atlantic (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
West
Louisiana Tech (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
UAB (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)

MAC

Three wins 
East
Buffalo (1-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
West
None
Two wins
East 
Akron (0-0 conference, 2-0 overall) 
West
Eastern Michigan (0-1 conference, 2-1 overall)

Mountain West

Three wins
Mountain conference 
None
West conference
Hawai’i (1-0 conference, 3-1 overall)
Two wins
Mountain
Boise State (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
Utah State (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
New Mexico (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
Wyoming (0-0 conference, 2-2 overall)
West
Fresno State (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
Nevada (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
UNLV (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
San Diego State (0-0, 2-1 overall)

Pac-12 

Three wins
North

Stanford (1-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
Cal (0-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
Oregon (0-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
Washington State (0-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
South 
Colorado (0-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
Two wins
North
Washington (1-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
South 
Arizona State (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
Utah (0-1 conference, 2-1 overall)

SEC

Three wins
East
Georgia (1-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
Kentucky (1-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
Missouri (0-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
West
Alabama (1-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
LSU (1-0 conference, 3-0 overall)
Mississippi State (1-0 conference, 3-0 overall) 
Two wins
East
Tennessee (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
Vanderbilt (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
Florida (0-1 conference, 2-1 overall)
West 
Texas A&M (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
Auburn (0-1 conference, 2-1 overall)
Ole Miss (0-1 conference, 2-1 overall)

Sun Belt

Three wins 
None
Two wins
East 
Costal Carolina (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
Georgia Southern (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
Troy (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
West
Arkansas State (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)
Louisiana-Monroe (0-0 conference, 2-1 overall)

Independent

Three wins
Notre Dame (3-0)
Two wins
Army (2-1)
BYU (2-1)

Sunday, September 9, 2018

Post Week-2 College Football Playoff Projections: Round up the usual suspects (along with TCU and Wisconsin).

College Football Bowl Projections 
Week Two of the 2018 college football season is over, and it’s time to see what the pundits thin the 2019 College Football Playoff will look like. Don’t expect many deviations from what you would expect the CFP picture to look like, though. The projections all have Clemson in the CFP, with some combination of Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, and Oklahoma rounding out the four-team playoff.