Tuesday, November 24, 2015

College Football Playoff and New Year's Six Bowl Projections - Post Week 12.

Image via newsday.com. 


It's Tuesday again. The College Football Playoff committee. With Ohio State's loss to Michigan State last Saturday, the CFP is ready for another major shakeup.



Mich. St. probably won't ascent to the Top Four of the CFP rankings for another week or two. It paves the way for Iowa to finally have its day in the Sun.

Conventional wisdom says Notre Dame will be hurt by its lackluster performance against Boston College. However, conventional wisdom and NCAA FBS football are two ships that rarely pass in the night, so the Irish might hang on for another week.

Here is this week's roundup of the CFP/New Year's Six Bowls games. As usual the projectors are ESPN's Brett McMurphy and Mark Schlabach, CBS Sports' Jerry Palm, SB*Nation's Jason Kirk, and Bleacher Report's Bryan Fischer.

Current College Football Playoff Teams


Clemson (11-0)
Alabama (10-1)
Ohio State (10-1)
Notre Dame (10-1)

CFP Projections

Changes from last week's projections are in bold.

McMurphy
Last Week: Clemson, Alabama, Ohio St. Oklahoma State
This Week: Clemson, Alabama, Michigan State, Oklahoma

Schlabach
Last Week: Clemson, Ohio St., Alabama, Baylor
This Week: Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma

Palm
Last Week: Ohio St., Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma
This Week: Clemson, Alabama, Michigan St, Oklahoma

Kirk
Last Week: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio St. ,Notre Dame
This Week: Clemson, Alabama, Michigan St., Oklahoma

Fischer
Last Week: Ohio St., Clemson, Alabama, Stanford
This Week: Clemson, Alabama, Michigan St.,  Oklahoma

Looks it's become an unanimous sweep for Clemson, 'Bama, Michigan St., and Oklahoma. McMurphy had the most turnover thanks to Michigan St. beating Ohio St. Apparently nobody expects Iowa to beat Sparty in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Also, it may suck being Notre Dame if it gets knocked out of the CFP this week.

College Football Playoff


Orange Bowl (No.1 vs. No. 4)

McMurphy
Last Week: Clemson vs. Oklahoma St.
This Week: Clemson vs. Oklahoma

Schlabach
Last Week: Clemson vs. Oklahoma
This Week: Clemson vs. Oklahoma

Palm
Last Week: Ohio St. vs. Oklahoma
This Week: Clemson vs. Oklahoma

Kirk
Last Week: Clemson vs. Ohio St.
This Week: Clemson vs. Oklahoma

Fischer
Last Week: Ohio St. Oklahoma
This Week: Clemson vs. Oklahoma

Obviously Palm, Kirk, and Fischer were blindsighted by Michigan State's win over Ohio State. This week everybody is on the same board with Clemson and Oklahoma.

Cotton Bowl (No. 2 vs. No. 3) 

McMurphy
Last Week: Alabama vs. Ohio St.
This Week: Alabama vs. Michgian St.

Schlabach
Last Week: Alabama vs. Ohio St.
This Week: Alabama vs. Michigan St.

Palm
Last Week: Alabama vs. Clemson
This Week: Alabama vs. Michigan St. 

Kirk
Last Week: Alabama  vs. Notre Dame
This Week: Alabama vs. Michigan St.

Fischer
Last Week: Clemson vs. Alabama
This Week: Alabama vs. Michigan St.

Consensus once again. But what do you expect from after the next-to-last game of the season for most of these CFP/New Years' Six Bowls?


New Year's Six Bowl Games


2016 Sugar Bowl (Big 12 vs/ SEC)


McMurphy
Last Week: Florida vs. Oklahoma
This Week: Ole Miss vs. Baylor

Schlabach
Last Week: Florida vs. Baylor
This Week: Florida vs. Baylor

Schlabach not walking away from projecting the Gators facing the Bears in New Orleans.

Palm 
Last Week: Oklahoma St. vs. LSU
This Week: Baylor vs. Florida

Kirk
Last Week: Oklahoma vs. Florida
This Week: Baylor vs. Ole Miss

Kirk doesn't believe that Florida will be able to defeat Florida State next week, or Alabama in the SEC Championship on Dec. 5. With a projection for Ole Miss to defeat Mississippi St. in the Egg Bowl this coming Saturday, it's status as the second-best school in the SEC would be unchallenged.

Fischer
Last Week: Florida vs. Baylor
This Week: Florida vs. Baylor

Palm joins Schlabach and Fischer on the Florida-Baylor Sugar Bowl bandwagon. Ole Miss vs. Baylor probably has more of a chance of being the better match-up.

2016 Rose Bowl Game 

McMurphy 
Last Week: Iowa vs. Stanford
This Week: Michigan vs. Stanford

Schlabach
Last Week: Iowa vs. Stanford
This Week: Iowa vs. Stanford

Palm
Last Week: Iowa vs. Stanford
This Week: Iowa vs. Stanford

Kirk
Last Week: Iowa vs. Stanford
This Week: Michigan vs. Stanford

Fischer 
Last Week: Iowa vs. Stanford
This Week: Iowa vs. Stanford

Last week, our pundits were in agreement about Iowa and Stanford facing each other in the renewing of august rivalry between the Big Ten and Pac-10 following its hosting one of the two CFP Semifinals last season. McMurphy and Kirk are now playing contrarian by picking Michigan. None of our pundits seem to thing Ohio St. might get a Rose Bowl selection over Iowa. That might imply that they think Michigan will upset the Buckeyes this coming Saturday.

As for the matchups, Michigan-Stanford sounds more desirable on paper. Iowa-Stanford could be the more interesting and competitive game, on the other hand.

2016 Fiesta Bowl

McMurphy
Last Week: Baylor vs. Houston
This Week: Notre Dame vs. Iowa

Baylor and Houston's falls both combine to throw McMurphy's projections from last week straight in the shredder. With the Rose Bowl's return to Big 10 vs. Pac-12, and the Sugar Bowl spotlighting the SEC vs. the Big 12, Notre Dame finds itself

Schlabach
Last Week: Oklahoma State. vs. Notre Dame
This Week: Michigan vs. Notre Dame

Palm
Last Week: Notre Dame vs. Houston
This Week: Ohio St. vs. Houston

Palm still sees Houston as the Group of Five's New Year's Six Bowls representative. This despite the Cougars' loss to UConn this past weekend.

Kirk
Last Week: Baylor vs. Michigan St.
This Week: Notre Dame vs. Iowa

Fischer
Last Week: Houston vs. Florida St.
This Week: Navy vs. Florida St.

Michigan vs. Notre Dame is the big match-up in the Fiesta Bowl projections. Also: the pic for those whose vinyl record collection isn't from hipster vanity, if you catch my drift. ND vs. Iowa comes in as the second best potential match-up. Ohio St. vs Houston gets the "oh, how the mighty have fallen!" award. Navy vs FSU has upset potential for the Midshipmen, if someone hasn't snatched head coach Ken Niumatalolo by then. (Don't say I didn't warn you, Annapolis.)

2015 Peach Bowl 

McMurphy
Last Week: Michigan St. vs. Notre Dame
This Week: FSU vs. Navy

McMurphy's projection from last week got derailed by Sparty's win over Ohio St. He goes with the FSU-Navy card for the ATL.

Schlabach
Last Week: Florida vs. Houston
This Week: Houston vs. FSU

Schlabach isn't buying Navy defeating Houston for the AAC title.

Palm

Last Week: Michigan St. vs. FSU
This Week: Notre Dame vs. FSU

Kirk
Last Week: FSU vs. Navy
This Week: FSU vs. Navy

Fischer
Last Week: Notre Dame vs. LSU
This Week: FSU vs. Navy

FSU-Navy is the popular projection here. Houston-FSU is the pick for the headstrong. Notre Dame-FSU is your dad's pick.





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